Master and Commander doesn't have a chance.  It's just in there because Russell Crowe is popular, but it isn't epic enough to win.  Seabiscuit should probably be scratched, too...in another year, maybe.  But the Academy (tm) loves epics.  Seabiscuit has that charm and quaintness, plus the bonus of being attached to a pseudo-intellectual popular book.  Mystic River is a good film, but again...too small.  It deals with bad things and has a bittersweet ending.  Lost in Translation is up there because it was directed by Francis Coppola's daughter, and the Academy (tm) feels guilty that Francis hasn't gotten much attention lately.  Lost has already lost, because, unfortunately, many of us still remember Sofia from Godfather III.  How can you give her an award after that performance?  That leaves Lord of the Rings, which people love, it made a bazillion dollars, it's based on a wildly popular series of books, and it's epic with good effects.  It's got it all.

Conventional wisdom would pick Rob Marshall for Chicago, because he won the DGA award and more often than not, that winner goes on to win the Oscar(tm).  But Scorsese was due, so the Masked Reviewer went out on a limb, and it's always bad to bet against Italians (unless it's World War II).  But somehow they gave it to Polanski.  It's nice to see the Academy forgiving and forgetting...OJ and Robert Blake, don't ever give up on your Oscar(tm) dreams!

While Johnny Depp would make the Masked Reviewer very happy if he won for Pirates of the Caribbean, Sean Penn is the logical choice.  He's been nominated three times for Dead Man Walking, Sweet and Lowdown, and I Am Sam (that is, he was nominated three times total, not three times for each film).  Sean Penn has also received critical acclaim for many of his other roles (including his work in The Thin Red Line and Fast Times at Ridgemont High), and he could be ready for the Golden Statue.  Not only that, but he has played a mentally challenged person, so he should've already won. 

Buzz is the thing when it comes to picking the actors/actresses.   Rarely if ever has an actress received so much buzz about a performance as did Charlize Theron in Monster.  There's so much going for it: it's about a serial killer...oooh.  She's a beautiful girl, but she makes herself ugly.  The Academy (tm)  loves that!  Just look at Nicole Kidman in The Hours.  A fake nose!  Charlize Theron had fake teeth, fake freckles, and she put on a lot of weight for the role, just like Robert DeNiro in Raging Bull or Chris Farley in Beverly Hills Ninja.  Only real actors do that.  Why, the only thing that would be better as far as the Academy (tm) is concerned would be if her character were also retarded.  But, short of that, she's a lock for Best Actress.  No contest.

Actor

This is a tough one.  Alec Baldwin has some legs, because he's not been nominated before, and he's a Democrat.  What, you say?  That's right.  Baldwin is a Democrat, and Hollywood leans towards the liberals, especially in election years.  What better way to stick it to President Bush than to have Alec Baldwin win an Oscar (tm)?  Benicio Del Toro has already won for Traffic in this category, so he's not a favorite.  Djimon Hounsou is too hard to spell.  Tim Robbins has never received an acting nomination before, so he's a strong possibility, aided by the fact that he was good in his performance!  Ken Watanabe is another first timer, but he probably gave the strongest performance of the five.  Djimon missed the year of recognition for African Americans, but maybe Ken Watanabe will be the token Asian recipient?  The Masked Reviewer has decided to go to with Tim Robbins at the last second.

Actress

Sadly, this is bound to be the year for Renee Zellwegger.  Why be sad?  You have to understand that she is either loved or hated as an actress...and the Masked Reviewer isn't what could be called a "big fan".  Primarily this is due to her stint in Down with Love; it's not that she's a bad actress, it's just that she seems to ooze the idea that she's much better looking than she really is.  What's with the scrunchy lemon-sucking face?  That's not cute!  In any event, she's been nominated for Chicago and Bridget Jones's'ss' Diary, so the third at-bat could be the homer she's been looking for.  Besides, nobody saw Holly Hunter in Thirteen or Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April, and Marcia Gay Harden's role in Mystic River was tiny.  As for Shohreh Aghdashloo...gesundheit.

Animated Film

Disney didn't win last year, and they're due.  Besides, the only non-Disney film is The Triplets of Belleville and it involves French people.  Well, we all know how the Academy (tm) (and everyone else) feels about the French, so it's down to Brother Bear or Finding Nemo.  The Masked Reviewer saw both.  Finding Nemo had bigger stars and it made so much money that they bought a new compressor coil for Walt.  It's a lock.

Language Film

It certainly sounds cooler than it is.  This film was picked solely because it also received a nomination for Best Original Screenplay.  For the members of the Academy (tm) who won't bother watching these films, that other nomination may mean a lot.

Screenplay

This will be another fiercely contested film.  American Splendor should have received more nominations than just this, and since this is it, it should win.  However, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is a strong candidate, as is Seabiscuit.  Since Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is too long to spell out on the voting forms, the Masked Reviewer went with American Splendor.

Screenplay

It's unlikely that Sofia Copola will win Best Director, and a Bill Murray is far from a lock for Best Actor.  The consolation prize may be for Best Original Screenplay, though Dirty Pretty Things was woefully left out of other categories and deserves something. 

Art Direction

The Last Samurai didn't receive many nominations, and it was visually very impressive.  However, the edge has to go to Lord of the Rings because...well...it got a lot of nominations. 

Cinematography

Another tough one.  It's anybody's guess, but since in this space it is only the Masked Reviewer's guess, he'll have to guess.  Cold Mountain and Master and Commander seem to be the two strongest bets, but the Masked Reviewer has had a pre-Oscar(tm) hunch that it will be Seabiscuit.

It should be a lock.  There weren't any musicals nominated this year, and although all of the others had good sound (especially Master and Commander), it should win because people will get swept up in "Rings Fever".

Sound Editing

Why wasn't The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King nominated for best sound editing?  Was it worse than The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers which won last year?  It just doesn't make sense!  Did the Academy (tm) members think that they couldn't offer too many awards to the same film?  So strange.  The Masked Reviewer is positive that a movie that deals with the ocean will win this one.  Because of the great effects during the battles, Master and Commander will win the gold.

Original Score

The field is tight this year in many of the categories.  The favorites for this are Finding Nemo's Thomas Newman who has 5 previous nominations and no wins, James Horner for House of Sand and Fog, who has 8 prior nominations and 3 wins, and Howard Shore for Lord of the Rings because Lord of the Rings is set to sweep.  None of the scores nominated are exactly memorable, so it's a roll of the Masked Reviewer's dice...

Original Song

This is the category that the Masked Reviewer would most like to see won by his favorite.  That would be "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from A Mighty Win.  However, it's the first nomination for the song writers, and as they say, "it's an honor just to be nominated."  The Academy(tm) will more than likely give the award to Sting for "You Will Be My Ain True Love", even though Cold Mountain had two (count 'em, two) songs nominated: that could mean a split vote, but the other song writers have never been nominated before, and, well, you know.  The other possibility is the Lord of the Rings, but this is one they may give up.

Design

Yet another close one, it's going to be down to the wire between Lord of the Rings and Master and Commander.  Last Samurai has an outside chance on this one, too, especially if they don't win for Art Direction.  It's likely that Lord of the Rings will add this to the heap.

Feature

Like many Americans, WHO CARES?  Has anyone seen any of these films?  Capturing the Friedmans got a little bit of attention, but without an easy choice like Bowling for Columbine, you have to go with the subject matter or a body of previously unrecognized work.  Since Hollywood heavyweights have been barred from making long political commentaries during their acceptance speeches, the Academy(tm) can get their message across by the films they nominate.  The Weather Underground is about Vietnam and terrorism.  Errol Norris previously directed the excellent film, The Thin Blue Line and has been nominated for The Fog of War, another war film...making that the natural choice.  So, that's the Masked Reviewer's choice.  When Michael Moore does another film, this category will be much easier.

Short

Who knows?  This is one of the categories for which no one sees the nominated films.  There are only three choices, but Chernobyl Heart doesn't seem like a contender.  The Masked Reviewer's money is on Asylum.  Ferry Tales sounds too flippant.

Film Editing

Gotta go with the flow on this one.

Make-Up

This should also be a no-brainer.  Master and Commander and Pirates of the Caribbean were both good, but Lord of the Rings was, in fact, much better in this one.

Short Film

The filmmaker who made Nibbles was previously nominated, so he may have an edge...however, Destino is made by Roy Disney, a relative of Walt Disney!  This film has something to do with the works of Salvador Dali, so it's undoubtedly weird, but nepotism and artsy-fartsiness may be an unbeatable combo.

Short Film

No idea.  This is a total shot in the dark.  A crap shoot.  The Masked Reviewer will go with Two Soldiers because it sounds like it deals with war and it's based on a Faulkner story.

Visual Effects

Even though the other two nominees had great effects, Lord of the Rings got the most buzz. It pushed the envelope further than the other two films, although Master and Commander used its visual effects in very convincing ways. Pirates might win, though, as Academy (tm) voters start to feel guilty if they give too many awards to any one film.